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Christina Hester Snyder

Weekly Market Commentary: Why We Don’t Expect a June Swoon

Looking Ahead to June “It’s a smile, it’s a kiss, it’s a sip of wine… it’s summertime!” – Kenny Chesney “Summertime” The S&P 500 fell 0.5% last week, but that still left it with a 5.0% gain in May. The index is now up 11.3% in 2024 (including dividends). While June is historically a weak month, it fares much better in election years and a strong May suggests strength in June, the rest of the year, and even over the next 12 months. The final inflation report for the month (PCE) confirmed we are not seeing a resurgence in inflation. […]

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Weekly Market Commentary: 7 Reasons the Bull Market Is Alive and Well

“Sometimes the questions are complicated, and the answers are simple.” — Dr. Seuss 2024 came out swinging. The S&P 500 rose more than 10% in the first quarter after adding more than 11% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Back-to-back double-digit quarters are rare, but they tend to happen in bull markets. The S&P 500 advanced for the third consecutive week, adding 1.9% and approaching an all-time high. Economic data remains supportive, according to the Carson Leading Economic Indicator, which is pointing to above-trend growth. Strong starts to the year are bullish signals, and this bull market is young. Stocks […]

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Weekly Market Commentary: Fed, Earnings, Job Gains Support a Young Bull Market

This Bull Market Is Still Young As we’ve been saying for close to 18 months, we think we are in a new bull market and the economy will avoid a recession over the coming year. Not much has changed, and we still feel this way. Yes, there will be pullbacks, corrections, and scary headlines along the way, but overall, plenty of positive territory remains. Stocks gained for the second week in a row, as strong earnings, a dovish Fed, and a “Goldilocks” job number sparked buying. The current bull market is young, and additional returns remain likely. The Fed is […]

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Weekly Market Commentary: A Closer Look at the Stock Market’s Reaction to Major Geopolitical Events

The Stock Market’s Reaction to Major Geopolitical Events Tends to Be Short-Lived The escalating tension between Israel and Iran has many investors worried about what could happen next. Although we won’t pretend to know the answer, we do understand that while geopolitical events can cause near-term market volatility, they rarely cause major problems for markets longer term. Stocks had their worst week of the year and have now fallen three consecutive weeks for the first time since September 2023. Geopolitical worries are high, but historically the impact of global events on stocks has been short-lived, especially if the economy is […]

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Weekly Market Commentary: Markets React to Inflation

Even in Healthy Markets, Stocks Go Up and Down After more than a 30% total return on the S&P 500 over the last 12 calendar months, a five-month win streak, and a 27% rally in the first 100 trading days off the late-October lows, the market may finally be having a well-deserved break. We want to stress that this isn’t something to fear. It’s all part of the process, even in healthy bull markets. Stocks fell last week on inflation and Middle East worries. After the historic run, some type of consolidation is perfectly normal. CPI inflation came in hotter […]

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Market Commentary: Checking In on Market Fundamentals

Three Bullish Signals from the First Quarter “We may not know where we are going, but we better know where we stand.” — Howard Marks, Co-Founder of Oaktree Capital Management The S&P 500 was down 0.9% last week, getting the first quarter off to a slow start. A strong first quarter still suggests a positive outlook, but some bumps along the way are normal and even healthy. The U.S. economy continues to look solid, with markets rallying Friday after a stronger-than-expected jobs report. Market fundamentals show earnings growth has been the main driver of stock growth amid strong revenue growth […]

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Market Commentary: Strong Starts to the Year Are Usually Bullish for Stocks

DON’T FEAR A STRONG START TO THE YEAR It’s April 1, and the first quarter of 2024 is in the books. On the heels of more than 25% in total return for 2023, the S&P 500 returned more than 10% in the first quarter. The logical question is: How much is too much? Looking at the numbers, more good news could be in store for the bulls. 2024 is off to a strong start. The first three months of the year have been positive, marking a five-month streak of stock market wins. Strong starts to the year typically lead to […]

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Market Commentary: The Case Against a Stock Market Bubble

The Case Against a Stock Market Bubble Despite losing ground on Friday, the S&P 500 climbed four out of five days last week to finish 2.3% higher. The index is now up 10.1% year-to-date. Last week’s gains were supported by the market’s interpretation of the most recent Federal Reserve meeting. Despite upgrading its view on the economy, the Fed continued to pencil in three rate cuts this year, which showed muted concern about inflation. Stocks have had strong gains so far this year, but there are no warning signs of a bubble. Stock gains since the start of 2020 have […]

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Market Commentary: Stocks Still in a Sweet Spot Despite Modest Declines

Stocks Still in a Sweet Spot The S&P 500 was down for the second consecutive week last week, but even combined declines were modest at just -0.3%. A pause is normal and even healthy for a bull market. In addition, several signs continue to indicate an overall healthy market. Year-to-date gains are in the “Goldilocks” range — strong but not too strong — and the market is exhibiting solid participation across stocks, sectors, and regions. The S&P 500 saw modest declines for the second week in a row after a small inflation upside surprise. Nevertheless, solid year-to-date gains and broadening […]

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Market Commentary: Bull Keeps Going, 15 Years Since Global Financial Crisis

The Bull Keeps Going We sound like a broken record, but that could be a good thing in a bull market, as stocks made more new highs last week. In the end, the S&P 500 closed marginally lower for the week after a late Friday afternoon sell-off. But stocks have been up 16 out of the last 19 weeks, rising more than 24% during that rally. In the history of the S&P 500, stocks have never risen that quickly with such consistent weekly gains. The bull run continued last week, with more new highs before a sell-off on Friday. Although […]

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