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Christina Hester Snyder

Market Commentary: Good News Is Good News

In 2022, positive economic data typically led to a sell-off in the stock market, and weak data often led to a rally. This was due to the overriding worry that better data meant the Federal Reserve would hike rates and weak data meant it might cut. That wasn’t normal market behavior, and we are happy to report the market is reverting to more typical trends. Strong economic growth and better data should be viewed positively, as it shows the economy isn’t falling into a recession. And that is what is happening now. The bull market continued last week, setting new […]

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Market Commentary: S&P 500 Index Hits a New All-Time High

New All-Time Highs at Last New highs! The S&P 500 Index set an all-time high for the first time in more than two years Friday. Setting all-time highs is generally supportive for markets, and they’re even better if it’s been a year or more since the last one. On the bond side, our base case is the Fed will cut rates 4-5 times this year with the first cut in May. As discussed in our 2024 Market Outlook, we believe the rate cuts would support a 4-6% total return for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index in 2024. For a broad […]

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Market Commentary: Carson Investment Research Looks at the Year Ahead

Carson Investment Research 2024 Market Outlook: Seeing Eye to Eye We are targeting a total return of 11-13% for the S&P 500 Index in 2024 and 4-6% for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. We believe the odds of a recession remain low, with continued income growth, a recovery in rate-sensitive cyclical areas of the economy, and untapped potential for productivity gains helping to support the expansion. We also share a long-term view of markets, highlighting the persistence of the equity risk premium and the value of diversification. What a strange year we had in 2023. Market participants, strategists, policymakers, […]

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Market Commentary: Slow Start For Stocks Despite Solid Job Gains

2023 Stock Gains Suggest a Solid (But Not Spectacular) 2024 The S&P 500 finally fell last week after nine consecutive weeks of gains, the longest weekly winning streak since 2004. Some investors worry the decline during the normally bullish end-of-year/early-new-year period may be sending a negative signal. But we believe stocks simply needed a breather and don’t view it as a significant warning sign. The extreme strength since late October is consistent with major bull markets, and we expect this overall upward trend to continue in 2024. Stocks took a break after a nine-week win streak, but we remain bullish […]

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Market Commentary: Sentiment and Santa Setting the Market Tone for 2024

Four More Reasons ’24 Should Be a Good One for the Bulls “Investing is like dieting. It is simple, but not easy.” — Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Looking ahead to 2024, there are four reasons for bulls to smile. Sour consumer sentiment has improved as income gains, rising home prices, stock gains, low gas prices, and falling mortgage rates have kept households in the holiday spirit. The “Santa Claus Rally” calendar effect started on Friday, Dec. 22, and runs through Jan. 3, capturing a strong period for stocks as well as a potential harbinger for things to come. One year […]

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Market Commentary: Stocks and Bonds Rally as Fed Recognizes Progress on Inflation

The Inflation Problem is Easing, and the Fed’s Likely Going to Cut Rates The Federal Reserve recognized strong progress on inflation at its most recent policy meeting. Yields plummeted and equities rallied following the Fed’s announcement. Rate-cut expectations have risen substantially, including by the Fed. Over the next five years, we continue to favor U.S. equities, potentially supported by a virtuous productivity cycle. Wednesday, Dec. 13, was important for two reasons: The Federal Reserve acknowledged that inflation is easing faster than expected, and Fed members will likely start cutting rates in the first half of 2024. The November producer price […]

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Market Commentary: Things You Don’t See in a Recession

Stocks took a break last week, which was perfectly normal after a five-week win streak coming off the late-October lows. It is important to remember that stocks lead the economy, both on the way up and the way down. Various indexes are closing in on new all-time highs, and one of the most important indexes in the world is already there. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (on a total return basis) made a new all-time high last week. To us, this is the market’s way of saying the economy will continue to see solid growth next year. Multiple signs indicate […]

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Market Commentary: What a Month!

The S&P 500 gained 8.9% in November for one of its best monthly returns ever. One month ago, stocks were in a correction, fear was everywhere, and talk of a new bear market and a recession were in the news. Then a funny thing happened … stocks soared! The year-end rally continued last week, with stocks up five weeks in a row. Stocks soared in November for one of the best months ever, but history suggests more gains are likely. Although some near-term weakness is possible, we expect further gains during the typically strong month of December. Inflation continues to […]

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Market Commentary: Reasons To Be Thankful

We hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving holiday with family and friends. We wanted to take some time this week to go over a few reasons for investors to be thankful. Stocks rallied again last week and are now up four weeks in a row. The S&P 500 is up close to 20% on the year, one big reason to be thankful. The economy remains strong, the consumer is healthy, the wall of worry is intact, and manufacturing is bottoming. These factors are tailwinds as we head into 2024 and likely beyond. Stocks Are Up Nicely The S&P 500 is […]

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Market Commentary: The Rally Continued

Three weeks ago, stocks were down 10% from their late-July highs and most market pundits were predicting more pain to come. Although we at Carson didn’t see it that way, as discussed in this Weekly Market Commentary in real time, it was an uncomfortable period for most investors. Stocks continued to climb last week, as the year-end rally we’ve been expecting takes shape. Some market watchers have complained the rally has low participation, with only large companies experiencing gains. That changed last week as overall breadth was strong. Inflation data last week likely took an additional rate hike off the table. Services […]

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